UAE GDP growth may reach 6.3% in real terms this year to $483. 4 billion, according to figures from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), surpassing the 4.2% forecast from the IMF and UAE Central Bank.

Abu Dhabi’s real GDP could hit 7.6% this year, Gulf News reports, fuelled by the considerable rise in oil and gas production and prices. Whereas Dubai’s GDP growth is forecast to remain a strong 4.2%, driven by core sectors including retail, trade and tourism.

In addition, with average oil prices in 2022 at $101 per barrel, the combined current account surplus of regional oil exporters is set to rise from $159 billion last year to $445 billion, with the six GCC countries making up 84% of the surplus. Furthermore, this will impact Saudi Arabia’s GDP stats, which are forecast to rise 7.3% to $835.9 billion. GDP growth is forecast at 6.6% in Kuwait to $169 billion.

The Institute of International Finance forecasts fiscal breakeven oil prices within state budgets to continue to fall due to additional rises in non-oil revenues and a robust recovery in oil export volume. “The surge in oil and gas prices will eliminate last year’s aggregate fiscal deficit and shift it to a surplus of 5% of GDP in 2022,” according to Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist Mena, IIF.

In addition, inflationary pressures are still comparatively modest, especially in the GCC, bolstered by pegged exchange rates, the Gulf News report goes on to add. Moreover, elevated global food and energy prices passing through to domestic prices has been somewhat limited due to specific price mechanisms.